When to Switch Trading Strategies
Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of Line Your Own Pockets. We're gonna talk about what I think is like the dirtiest word in finance this time, that's strategy hopping. But Dave made a he called an audible on this one, changed it up on the fly. So what what spurred that on?
Dave:Alright. So a trader that I'm coaching now has had just sent me this video. And a lot of times when I'm coaching traders, they'll, like, I'll send them Loom videos or they'll send me a Loom video. So it's it's a kind of a good way to, communicate. And he sent me this one today that he was showing me his process that he'd used over the weekend to sort of nail down or make headway on the strategy he was working on.
Dave:And he wanted my input on whether he should go down a related road, but a different road. It's sort of a line of research that was similar, but not exactly the same as the strategy that he's working on now. And, you know, I know that people have heard me say, you know, you can scale wide or you can go deep in strategies, like there's more like the stuff we've talked about. You can there's more depth in a lot of these strategies. So in one sense, he's sort of asking permission to move on from this idea that he's working on now to go to this other idea, which somewhat related, but a different distinct idea.
Dave:And I know enough about his process and you know, how thoroughly is to know that this is not what you would call a strategy hop, but it kind of but for another trader, it certainly could be. And I think it's important to think about what happens to new traders how that's distinct from what we're talking about here. A little bit of ambiguity here in what we're saying, you know, when is it time to go on to another strategy versus when do you stick with something, knowing that most traders, you know, move on from strategies too quickly. They're way They too don't look at the depth. They don't even explore the depths of strategies.
Dave:So they just move on to something else when something stops working.
Michael:Right. And that's what I, that's what I call the cardinal sin of, of trading. It's not so much the, not so much the fact that they're doing different strategies. We we talk about how that's, you know, the only way, in my opinion, to trade is to have a bunch of different strategies that you build up over time. But I think specifically, the the sin of strategy hopping is, right, I do trade a and then all of a sudden I have a losing week or month or something and then I'm just doing something different.
Michael:As as crazy as I've heard people say, oh, you know, I tried to trade options for a month or so and that didn't work. So I went over to four x and I traded that for a month or so and I went just completely different. And you could tell, you know, they weren't they didn't stop trading their options when everything was sunshine and kittens. Right? They stopped trading their options when they experienced a drawdown.
Michael:I think that is more of a problem than, you know, what seemingly described here, which was, you know, I've got something that's, you know, I'm I'm working on and I'm I'm honing in. Now let me, you know, take some of what I've learned or something and and apply it somewhere slightly differently. I don't think that is and you know, those those might be two different extremes. But yeah, when I say strategy hoppy, I mean, right, the guy was a low float penny stock trader for a day and a half and he lost some money on it. So now he's gonna be an option premium seller, which is as as different as you could possibly be.
Dave:Yeah. So I think it is it is a bit of a judgment call, like when to when the strategy is complete or when, you know, your work on a strategy complete or when your line of research is complete and it's time to go on. But I think there's a good think it's good to have an organized process for this type of research. And when you go on to another strategy, have there's some things that I suggest people do before they move on from strategy a to strategy b to document to to ask themselves some questions about strategy a. You know?
Dave:And we can go into this some specific things about how to document that, so that when you come back to it, you can very quickly see where you were in strategy a and be productive as quickly as possible when you come back to it.
Michael:Yeah. And and, you know, I think having goals that you I'm going to equate this back to being like a gym bro. Think it's the best way when I think about it because because part of what I think about is that, you know, somebody, they look online, they find like a weight lifting program. Right? The the old, you know, Mondays chats and two days Tuesdays, whatever.
Michael:And they do that for like three weeks, and then they see a really cool interesting YouTube video about how I know you should do full body every day, and here's all the scientific and then they just jump ship entirely. Mhmm. Where there is a time when you're working out where it makes sense to make that shift. But usually what you do is you say, okay, progress has stalled for some period of time. You have a measured, you know, I want it to gain a certain amount of muscle or or a certain amount, be able to lift a certain amount more.
Michael:And when you're seeing that kind of diminishing marginal utility for a long time, you're like, you know, I keep going and I'm doing the same thing, but the gains I'm getting are are are so small. Or even something subjective of I'm bored going to the gym and doing the same workout the same day and I I want to jump ship. I think both of those are fine, but they're kind of like more predetermined and less in the moment of, oh, that was a really cool video I saw. Now, I'm gonna I'm gonna jump ship. That's the way I more or less look at it.
Michael:I'm either to the point where I think, yes, I could probably put in another 100 of work and maybe get, you know, 2% better. Or if I go over here, then there's like a whole unexplored thing. And then again, sometimes it's just boredom. It's like, I I do see that that shiny new object or that shiny new strategy. I'm like, you know, I'll have a lot of fun working on that and then you you go over and do that.
Michael:But at least I'm honest with myself about why I'm moving.
Dave:Yeah. Well, you you know, you bring up a good word there, and this is the word I was thinking of fun. Like, is it it should be exciting. This should be fun stuff to work on, and you should get enjoyment out of doing it. If you're if this is drudgery to you that you're not doing it right and you're not thinking about it in the right way, and, I mean, this should be exciting.
Dave:I mean, there's chances to make lots of money here, and and you're always just, you know, one corner away from having some breakthrough where that can unlock a lot of P and L for you. Yep. So, yeah, I mean, fun is an important part of this. And I can tell just from the way he was asking, he really want he was excited to work on this other area. And that's there's a lot of value in that.
Dave:You wanna work on stuff you're you're you're having fun doing. So
Michael:There is, but there's also value there. And this is just this is why, you know, I hear a lot of people say, you know, hey. Well, if you're systematic trading, then you'd you know, you can just give people the code and and they'll walk away because
Dave:Yeah.
Michael:But I was just thinking, I could see two worlds in which that chasing that fun is a really good thing and makes you a whole bunch of money. But then there's the other extreme of it where the person just has like insane, you could like system ADHD and they're not able to get any juice out. So I would rather the guy who goes, you know, in direction a and he builds a strategy. Maybe he doesn't even go very deep at all, but he builds a strategy, it's profitable, that's great, and then gets the ADHD and then goes to strategy b, and he builds something there. Maybe it's not the best thing in the world.
Michael:And as long as he's having fun doing that, I think through that over time, he'll still do fine. But there's a world where somebody goes and they've got an idea and they just do the first part of the testing and they don't, like, they don't finish it before they move somewhere else. There there is a world where hopping too quickly is going to be harmful. And I think it's really if you want to put a cap on it is when do you have your first like actively trading working strategy. Yes.
Michael:Going deeper on that strategy might be the right mathematical move. It might, you know, yield the best results and make the most money in the long run. But if you're not going to be able to force yourself to do it because no longer interesting to you, that's fine. I think the problem becomes when you just you get I have a wife with ADHD. She'll be like, I put the groceries away and then you walk out and there's just like three items left.
Michael:It's no it's no big deal. But I'm like, that show like you could have just you could have just finished the job if you just put these and it's the same way like, oh, I got a strategy. Here's my rough back test, but I didn't optimize it and I didn't, you know, implement it to do any forward testing or anything like this. And now I'm on to this other thing. That person I think is is kinda screwed a bit.
Dave:Yeah. So, I think it is important to you know, everybody's got certain ways in which they operate, and yeah, mean, sometimes I see myself in your life where, you know, the last 5% of the project, yeah, it's probably not the most fun thing to do. But so I realize that in myself a bit sometimes, sometimes with strategies, and I'm off to do something different that there's more meat there. But what I realized is you need to be able to go back to that strategy and get deeply and very quickly back to the mindset you were in. So, you know, imagine you know, one good analogy for this is imagine you have a job where your work is at the bottom of the ocean.
Dave:It takes you a while to get down at the bottom of the ocean to even start work. Right? And that's, I think this is similar. It's a very familiar, analogy for some of these trading strategies. So, you know, if you're working on strategy A, sometimes it takes forever to really to get to into the zone enough to make really serious progress on that.
Dave:And if you go to strategy B, you're essentially okay. You got to come back up to the surface. You gotta go around the top of the surface and then you gotta bore down lots of, you know, take a lot of time to bore down even to start work on strategy B because you're in, you know, you're, you're trying to get into the zone where you can really do deep work about these strategies. So there's a lot of wasted time getting into that zone. So what I like to tell traders before they move to strategy B, you're right, you know, you're in the zone with strategy A.
Dave:Before you move on, document everything about the current situation you find yourself in as strategy A. What are some of the questions that you would like answered? Like, why are you moving on? What's the roadblock? How did you get to this point in strategy A?
Dave:What was the path you took to get here? Anything, and all sorts of things around your the current status of strategy A. Because, yeah, you're moving on to strategy B, but at some point you're going to come across another filter, you're to come across another column, and you're gonna wanna be able to go back to strategy a. And you wanna get to the point at the bottom of the ocean there with strategy a as quickly as possible and and capture all that context that is in place there. And, but, but most traders don't do that.
Dave:They're just all into strategy B and they've, and they think, oh, well, you know, I'm so deep into this now. Surely I'll be able to go back and remember all this, but you can't like, it doesn't take much time to go by for you to be completely out of that context, and when you get back into the situation, it's very unfamiliar, much, much more unfamiliar than you would guess when you're in that moment.
Michael:When and human this has been very well said. Human beings are awful multitaskers. Right? There's they did a study, the whole open office thing. It turns out it was like the dumbest idea they ever had for productivity because the studies I remember reading that they've done is that if you get if you're in the zone working on something, and this is a little bit different than what you talked about, and you just get pulled out because somebody's walked by and like asked you about your day, it gets you like ten to fifteen minutes before you're back into that same kind of mind frame.
Michael:And that's someone interrupting you for a couple seconds on on a task as opposed to you leave it entirely and hopefully you've kept really good notes on it. But even if you, you know, you haven't kept any good notes on it, then you're really screwed. But yeah, trying to get back to that is just yeah. It's just really, really hard. So this is where, you know, I talk about how, you know, the jumping around could be a good thing if it keeps you interested, but you you have to have some end point.
Michael:And and, you know, what I like to just look at again is that marginal utility. Like how much juice do I think is left there for the squeeze. Right? You know, say the strategy makes you, I don't know, in back tests it's 10% a year. Well, do you think between that and other strategies you could get it to 20 a year?
Michael:Well, that's way more important than starting another strategy that makes you 10% a year because you average it out, right? It's it's five per per strategy. And then eventually it gets to the point where again, I'm just making up numbers, but that strategy makes you 20% a year. Well, are you gonna, you know, break your back so that it will make you 21%? It's probably not.
Michael:So there's there's a point when you get in there and you may actually even be able to quantify it where you just go, you say, where is that? How much gain is going to kind of happen from there? And if you could quantify and say, okay, I've worked on it for x period of time and this is, you know, why at least, know, in back test simulated output I've I've improved by. And when that number starts to shrink dramatically, well, maybe that's the time you give yourself permission to to walk away. Because, yes, it's hard to get back into the topic, but one thing I'll counter with is I think there is a benefit of if you work on another project, sometimes you get the light bulb moment for the thing you're beating your head against.
Michael:It's the whole, you know, if you're yeah. You're you're really deep down on something, sometimes you just need a walk. But sometimes you just need to remove yourself from entirely and go Yeah. Somewhere else and you go, oh crap. This is a really good idea that I could apply back on that thing I was stuck on, and, you know, I go back over there.
Dave:Yeah. And that's that is definitely the idea, and that will happen over time. It's hard to predict when that happens. But when you leave yourself in a position with the strategy A of, you know, well documented, you can go back and quickly see your thought process at the time, then it's much easier when you have a light bulb moment, maybe a year from now, maybe two years, maybe longer. You're in a much better position to be able to apply that light bulb moment and not have this messy desk with stuff everywhere, like figuring out what, you know, what post it note it was on or like to be having it organized.
Dave:And it doesn't take much to get pretty organized and allow this process to work smoothly. But if you don't have that process, you're leaving something on the table because you're not, you're not going to be able to sufficiently apply the light bulb moment like you want to.
Michael:Yeah. And it just shows how kind of nebulous this is and how it's a really hard question to to answer. And you have to come up with rules for yourself and you have to kind of know yourself. If if you are one of those people that you never finish a project, right? If you walk into your bathroom is is only one of the walls painted and the other one's the other one's not yet.
Michael:Well, then that person may need to put like really hard guardrails on themselves. Where if you just know you have the tendency of getting 90% of a project done and leaving, that person may want to have like written, these are the things that I absolutely must need to see and I'm not allowed to, you know, test anything and I'm not allowed to do anything until then. And great. If you're someone who you find that you kind of are perfectionist, maybe you overwork on a product to the other extreme. Right?
Michael:You you could have shipped that product three weeks ago, but you know, the font is a little bit weird and you're gonna keep messing Right? That that person may have You may have to do the opposite where you build rules to say, okay, this is the point where it's time to explore other things. And, know, remind yourself that I think on both ends how good you are with documentation should open up that freedom. Not only, like you mentioned, the documentation of of the technical side of things, you know how to get back to what you're doing. But, you know, one of our first episodes, we talked about how the documenting ideas as they come to you and having a place for that is super important as well, where that you may get some solace if you have a system where a idea pops into your brain and you can quickly jot it down and record it and and put it away somewhere so that you can very easily go back and grab that at any given time.
Michael:It just might make you feel better. I'm working on system a and I've got a brilliant idea for system b. Well, if I'm not someone who documents that, that would be really hard. But if I can just, know, I I have it, I've put it over there, I I have it all written out, I know I'll get to it at some point, just might make you feel a little bit better to say, okay, let's I I continue to work on what I'm doing.
Dave:Yeah. I think I've this in some traders where AI is actually making this worse for them because so a trader I'm working with now, he's working on his ideas for figuring out, okay, here are my ideas for strategies. Let's prioritize them and figure out which one to actually work on now. So he's, share me the Google sheet with all these ideas. He's got like over a 100 ideas in this thing.
Dave:And I can tell that he's used AI to come up with some of these. And it's like this mountain of ideas, which is really no ideas at all. So if you can't prioritize these in some way, it's gonna be like this big nebulous thing, you're never gonna be able to figure out what to work on next, which you know, plug for our old episode, our favorite episode that we've both identified in our hundredth episode, the Method. So this is a good, very good way to not be scared because there's so many ideas in your strategy bin or your idea bin. It's a way to prioritize it, and it sort of gets rid of that problem because you can very quickly be able to prioritize each of these ideas and so you're always feel like you're working on the most the most important one based on this metric that you come up with.
Michael:Yes. Yeah. And, know, I am probably the biggest AI supporter ever because a lot of what I do is couldn't have done because I'm I'm not a coder without AI. But idea generation for strategies, I think might be a little bit worrisome. And the only reason that example you gave of of the person who has that amount of ideas that were generated by the thing that will be a problem is because how do you rank whether or not you believe because with the the whole ICE method, it's whether it's a lot of beliefs there.
Michael:Like, how how much you believe the impact will be. It's very hard to do if you didn't come up with the idea yourself and you don't. It'd be very hard to have conviction that yes, this is going to be a great idea that's gonna make me a ton of money if it was something. And I I do the same thing where I have the AI go out there and like read studies and and present them to you. So I would say that would kind of be step one is to get a summary of all of those and to maybe spend a day reading through them and even, you know, giving them insanely low ice scores.
Michael:Like I would almost penalize anything the AI came up with with a lower score right off the bat and that would probably be that confidence area just because you you can't even if it looks nice, you can't have the confidence that it's going to perform nice because you didn't come up with it and and rank the ones that you figured out way higher and then and then kind of go from there because I I fell a little bit into the same trap where it was just going and it will grab tons of strategies. There's lots of blog posts and everything for out there for to read. Yeah. But then I look at that and I'd say, you know, I don't know enough about it to be confident this is gonna make a difference at all. So, know, again, places for AI, I I just ordered a monster computer to be able to help me manage all the tasks and everything I have.
Michael:But, you know, there's a time and a place, and I I don't think it's idea generation. I I don't. It it could be a, you know, hey, I have this idea. Could you go find to see if there's any similar work already have been done on it and maybe present that. But yeah.
Michael:And and like we talk about it, and I don't know if this is a newer trade or not. When you're just getting started, you think ideas are gonna be the hardest part and then eventually, you just create so many on your own that you don't you won't need the AI to go get ideas for you. You'll have enough of them on your own.
Dave:Yeah, I mean, the way I like to think about it is, you know, the AIs have never had to make trades to put food on the table.
Michael:Right?
Dave:And there's something definitely different about having to do that, that will focus you in such a way that to, to, to work on the important stuff. And yeah, the fact that AIs don't have to do that and have never done that and won't ever do that, That's an important thing. So and yeah, like the way you say it. Like, have capture that in that confidence number. How confident are you that you know about this idea, not just that you saw this from somebody else, you know, another AI or somebody else that just told you this would work.
Dave:Even that's not that's sort of the same bucket. Yeah. You need to do this yourself because otherwise you aren't gonna be confident enough in it to trade it with size one day. And, and that's the important part of trading is trading with size. That's what you should be trying to scale what you do over time.
Dave:It's easy to trade with small size, but the hard part is getting enough confidence to responsibly trade with large size.
Michael:Yeah. And yeah, it really does become I I can see what that person's the problem that that that people have is because you're right. It is now that the the coding part of it and all of that is so much easier. It's easier to whereas before with the AI before AI, when it came to, okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna code up an idea and I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna trade this idea. Well, you kind of have to like commit yourself to, I'm gonna sit down, I'm gonna make sure I know everything I need to code the idea, I need to start writing the code, I need to I need to do all that.
Michael:So, the barrier to start a new idea was way higher than, you know, just talking to your computer for five seconds. Well, I have this idea. Go to real test or go to Ambi Broker and and write up a rough draft and do a test. The fact that you can get from that idea to kind of rudimentary test in minutes is amazing in a lot of ways. But again, for those people you have to know who you are.
Michael:If you're one of those people that is harmful for you, I don't know what barrier you put in your way, but you gotta put some barrier out there to make it so that you're not doing that because, yeah, for me, I've noticed that where if I wanted to code something with like alternative data or something like that, I'm like committing myself to, you know, do I have a month free to sit down where it's now it's like, oh, I'm gonna go walk the dog. I'll just talk to Claude while I'm walking the dog. By the time I get back, something will be done. That's really dangerous for someone who's not like laser focused on on a certain thing.
Dave:So, there's another trader that I worked with at S and B Capital, his name is John. He's we should have him on the show some time. But as we were talking the other day, he's got a very interesting way that he basically works through strategies. And he works on one at a time, and his thought process is, okay, I have to get this out of my head. I've got these thoughts in here.
Dave:I wanna work on this strategy, I wanna get it done because I don't wanna think about it anymore. Like, that's- Yeah.
Michael:Makes sense.
Dave:It's it's it's actually a pretty good way to think about it. Yeah.
Michael:It's just, you know, it's like And it
Dave:really and it works for him really well.
Michael:Like, I I gotta go mow the lawn when we're done here. And just that the amount of brain power, that little task is taken up in the back of my brain is is huge. And, yeah. So, I I I definitely see that as well as someone who's like that, is that you want to be able to book end it. You know, close the book, that one's done.
Michael:Okay. The strategy's out there. It's either a great idea and I'm trading it live or it was a horrible idea and I I don't need to revisit it again. Just document it and move on. I think that's a really probably good way to frame that.
Dave:Yeah, so I think there's lots of different ways, you know, that might not work for other people, I don't think I work exactly that way. Sometimes I get, you know, intensely obsessed with a certain idea or a certain strategy or a certain concept, and I have to, you know, having, you know, a lot of fun working on it, but I I don't quite think it's quite like that where I have to get it out of my head to and and bookend it in in quite that way. Wouldn't describe it that way, but there is it's something there, like, I I think that prob it'll probably that'll probably resonate with some listeners for sure.
Michael:I think that's probably like a a writer's mentality. That's what I thought of when you were saying that. Someone who's like, could you imagine you're writing a novel and it's got all this, like, intricate character development and like all this world building and then you get like halfway through and you just go right? I I went from writing Star Wars and now I'm writing Lord of the Rings and just, you know, trying to hop back and forth or or move about them. So I bet you that's a very writers.
Michael:The story has to be completed, has to be over, and then I can go on and and kind of do the next thing after that. I bet you that's more, more or less that way of thinking.
Dave:Yeah. So stepping back thinking about strategy hopping here for this episode, what's the takeaway? I think it's there's not really a cut and dry, metric, just like for a strategy, know, like we talked about before, for strategies, like I don't have a specific metric that needs to look a certain way for a strategy to be good or not. I think there's it's the same kind of way with strategy hopping or with, know, working on different things, like how do you know when to work on, go work on something else? There's not really a cut and dry answer for that.
Dave:But as I think as long as you have a process that you've thought about, you've stepped back and you can get back to this idea, even though maybe right now in the moment you can't imagine coming back to it, still going through the work and documenting that, like, why do you think that? Like all that's valuable stuff that you'd be able to come back to and learn from and just continually get better and better and better over time.
Michael:Yeah. It's very much a know thyself thing. Right? Some people will be absolutely fine with it. Some people will be shooting themselves in the foot with it all the time.
Michael:And and, yeah, we can't give you a overall example because we don't know. Right? So it's it's very much up to you and whether what tendencies do you have when it comes to, you know, finishing finishing projects and and doing things like that. And so it's it's a very much be honest with yourself about why you're moving on. Is it ADHD?
Michael:Is it like, oh, I gotta, you know, chase the new shiny thing? Or do you just really think that it's just not worth your time anymore?
Dave:Yeah. Knowing that most traders who are new Mhmm. Are hopping to like, they're not going deep enough into strategies, so
Michael:Well, so, right, just while we're wrapping up, would that be more of a confidence thing about where the strategy came from than anything? Like, does that make sense? Like, you know, so say I I bumped into someone at a conference, I barely know the guy, and he says, oh, this technical pattern is super interested. You should test it. That seems like a very low confidence way that I generated the idea versus if I actually physically observed something in the market and I observed that thing many times in the market, I'm going to be more likely to chase that down further.
Michael:So maybe if you're struggling with this problem, is it where you're getting your ideas from? Maybe your next idea has to come from your own observations as opposed to something that you heard of or read. And I'm I'm someone I most of my stuff comes from consuming content. But the yeah. I I could see it being I just don't really trust the source that the idea came from.
Michael:Therefore, like the ice level of just the confidence, not of the strategy, but just of the the idea becomes different. Maybe that's something to look at is where you're getting your ideas from.
Dave:Yeah. And if you're moving on too quickly from strategies, you're probably not digging in deep enough in the first place. So, the reason you're doing it is you're not confident enough because you haven't done the work, you have you don't know the strategy well enough, you don't know the idea well enough, you're not probably not looking at enough charts to understand the dynamic about what's going on. So, I mean, one good question to ask is, you know, why are you moving on? And just to ask that simple question and the answer should not be, the strategy sucks.
Dave:It doesn't work. Now you need a deeper answer than that. Like, tell me why. What's going on here? Why do you think it's not working?
Dave:What was it? What's it supposed to be doing? What does it end up doing? So that's there's more depth here. If you find yourself having a knee jerk reaction like a lot of traders, well, this doesn't you know, strategy A doesn't work anymore.
Dave:Everybody knows that. Well, tell me why.
Michael:Yeah. Yeah. What was the thing that changed in the market to to change that? But yeah. And it's, you know, sometimes it feels unsatisfying not to have like a definitive answer of when to strategy hop.
Michael:But, you know, if everything in this game could be systematized, then like on a meta level, then that there'd be no edge. Right? The edge exists with these these questions that you have to ask yourself in order to to keep going. Right? If everything if there was a, you know, you optimize for Sharpe ratio and you move on to strategy when this degree and you like, if everything if you could systematize absolutely everything out there, then I think we that's when we'd be done as traders.
Michael:It's these little subjective things on the edges and none of us neither of us are subjective traders where we're deciding what to buy or sell in the moment. Right? But there's still subjective layers to what you do and those things are I think what kind of separates out everyone from whether or not you you kind of make it in the game or not personally.
Dave:Yeah. I think that's true.
Michael:Alright. Well, as always, I'm Michael Nauss.
Dave:And I'm Dave Mabe. Talk to you next time on Line Your Own Pockets.
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